The Backstop That Listens: Regime Triggers and the Expectations Channel

Fat Tail Notes · Part 13 · V10-P2 Part 12 built the backstop clock: backstop = f(trigger, lag, coverage, object), calibrated on March 2020, and ended with an explicit debt. Two things the fixed-lag version could not do: The Fed does not arrive on a calendar. It arrives when the regime is confirmed. On March 23, 2020, the flow tool fired not... Weiterlesen