AI Video: Time Until Superintelligence: 1-2 Years, or 20? Something Doesn't Add Up

Author: AI Explained - Bewertung: 6067x - Views:144868

Superintelligence when? This question is more urgent than ever as we hear competing timelines from Inflection AI, OpenAI and the leaders at the Center for AI Safety. This video not only covers the what was said, it offers some data on what superintelligence is projected to be capable of.

I discuss things that can hasten those timelines (see the new Netflix doc, Top 1% for Creativity and the AI Natural Selection paper) or slow it down (ft. Yuval Noah Hariri, the new Jailbroken paper, and more). And I end on some reflections of what it might mean to interact with a superintelligence (ft Douglas Hofstadter).

Introducing Superalignment: https://openai.com/blog/introducing-superalignment
Odds of Success: https://twitter.com/janleike/with_replies?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor
Mustafa Suleyman (Inflection AI) Interview: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oAxNkehgzEU
Inflection Supercomputer: https://www.tomshardware.com/news/startup-builds-supercomputer-with-22000-nvidias-h100-compute-gpus
GPT 2030: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/WZXqNYbJhtidjRXSi/what-will-gpt-2030-look-like
Counterpoint: https://twitter.com/xuanalogue/status/1666765447054647297
Creativity Test: https://www.umt.edu/news/2023/07/070523test.php
MMLU: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2009.03300.pdf
Boston Globe CAI: https://www.bostonglobe.com/2023/07/06/opinion/ai-safety-human-extinction-dan-hendrycks-cais/
Yuval Noah Hariri Guardian: https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2023/jul/06/ai-firms-face-prison-creation-fake-humans-yuval-noah-harari
Jailbroken Paper: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2307.02483.pdf
Suleyman Hallucination Tweet: https://twitter.com/mustafasuleymn/status/1678072401760796672?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet
Killer Robots: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YsSzNOpr9cE
Automated Apple-picking: https://twitter.com/AiBreakfast/status/1677828971214282752
50 year Mortgages: https://www.ft.com/content/281fbba6-28e2-42d4-b241-0f215995f0d1
Heypi: https://heypi.com/talk
Natural Selection Favors AIs over Humans: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2303.16200.pdf#:~:text=Natural%20selection%20may%20be%20a,designs%20to%20be%20selected%20naturally.
Gödel, Escher, Bach author Doug Hofstadter on the state of AI today: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lfXxzAVtdpU&t=1763s

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