🤖 🤖 🫧 🪡 Are we watching a rerun of 1987?
(Yes, and it’s going to hurt exactly the same way)
The God Model Fallacy: Why the AI Future Looks Like 1987
We are spinning up planet-sized brains just to format a JSON file. That's the God Model Fallacy in a nutshell.
We’re in the Uncanny Valley: 90% on benchmarks, but the system still feels dumb in real life, and nothing truly works without heavy prompt massaging or multiple turns.
I spent the last 8 months (and most of my savings) architecting my own GenAI stack to learn if we engineers still have a future or should all quickly become founders for LLM-wrappers.
Here is what I think now:
We are repeating the Lisp Machine collapse, frame by frame.
1987 in two sentences
$100k specialized Lisp Machines were sold as the only way to run “real AI” (expert systems).
Then normal Sun workstations did the same job for $20 k → every Lisp Machine company went to zero literally overnight.
2025 direct translation
God Models (GPT-5, Claude Opus, Grok-4) = Lisp Machines
Nvidia H200 racks = Symbolics boxes
DeepSeek-R1, Qwen-2.5, Llama-405B + LoRAs = the Sun workstations that are already good enough
The actual future (it’s Unix, not bigger brains)
- Tiny router (1–3 B) → picks the lane
- Retriever → grabs context
- Specialist (7–70 B) → does the work
- Synthesizer → makes it pretty
Whole chain = ~1/100th the cost of one 405 B call
Runs locally on a 2027 phone. No data center required.
The part nobody wants to talk about: Integration Tax
Monolith world
→ expensive tokens, easy code
Chained world
→ almost free tokens, engineering hell (routing, fallbacks, latency, observability, race conditions)
Result?
It will be to complex to build open-ended user-facing LLM applications like chat-bots.
The Great Sobering (coming 2026–2027)
The day a random 3–8 B open-weight model on an M5 / Snapdragon casually does 95 % of what we currently pay $500k+/month for is the day the entire frontier-model funding circus collapses.
To the AGI maximalists: over-investing in a beautiful idea is the hardest thing to quit.
To the builders reading this:
The magic is dying.
Real engineering is finally allowed to start.
That’s actually good news.
Which boring, high-ROI workflow do you think survives the Integration Tax?
SOCIAL SHARE CARD GENERATOR