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Calibration Is Bet Sizing

The last post was about making a number trustworthy. Leakage geometry, purge widths, de-overlap, a baseline that could not cheat. It ended with a minute-scale…

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The last post was about making a number trustworthy. Leakage geometry, purge widths, de-overlap, a baseline that could not cheat. It ended with a minute-scale ceiling that held at 52% across seven configurations and a model family swap. This one is about what happens after you trust the number. Because a probability you are going to bet on is a... Weiterlesen: Calibration Is Bet Sizing

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