The Poisson Distribution: Football Prediction’s Most Overrated “Mathematically Correct” Tool

If you've read any football prediction tutorial, you've seen this formula: P(goals = k) = λᵏ · e⁻ᵏ / k! It's called the Poisson distribution, born a hundred years ago to describe "how many phone calls a telephone exchange receives per minute." Today, millions of people use it to predict football scores — and then, match after match of 3:3, 0:0,... Weiterlesen: The Poisson Distribution: Football Prediction’s Most Overrated “Mathe…