Is the open web dying, and is AI partially to blame?

The question “Is the open web dying?” might evoke Betteridge’s law of headlines, which suggests that any headline ending in a question mark can be answered with “no.” But here, the answer is, unfortunately, closer to “yes.” To understand why the open web is faltering and to assess AI’s role in this decline, let’s first define what we mean by “open web.”

For the purposes of this article, the open web is:

• Publicly accessible without barriers like paywalls or subscription fees





• Unfiltered by governmental censorship





• Free from platform-based algorithmic control, allowing content to be discovered through open browsing and linking





• Interoperable, meaning that it fosters connections between sites without restrictions

The open web was once the backbone of online information, enabling anyone with an internet connection to freely share, link, and access content. But a combination of shifting business models, regulatory changes, and technological advancements — most recently AI — is reshaping the internet into a more closed, restrictive environment.

The squeeze on small content providers and diversity

A primary threat to the open web is the gradual exclusion of small content providers. Unlike large corporations with abundant resources, independent websites and niche creators often struggle to compete with the heavily promoted and easily accessible content hosted on major platforms. These smaller providers contribute significantly to the diversity of online information. When they’re squeezed out by competition or forced to hide behind paywalls to sustain themselves, it reduces the variety of voices and viewpoints available on the web.

Algorithm-driven platforms are partly to blame for this problem. On platforms like TikTok, Instagram, and Facebook, what you see is largely determined by engagement-driven algorithms. These algorithms prioritize content that keeps users hooked, which tends to favor big brands, viral content, and sensationalized news over niche, independent content. Smaller creators who can’t afford to engage in paid promotion or optimize their content for these algorithms struggle to gain visibility, further eroding the diversity that once characterized the open web.

Algorithmic search and the downfall of small organizations

Algorithmic control is not limited to social media platforms; search engines are also shifting how they prioritize and display content.

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The platform dependency problem: The case of Facebook and Zynga

When platforms dominate traffic, they gain power over businesses that depend on them. Facebook’s relationship with game developer Zynga is a prime example. For a period, Zynga relied almost entirely on Facebook to drive users to its games. This dependency made Zynga vulnerable to Facebook’s policy shifts, and following one set of changes to Facebook’s policies, Zynga’s reach and revenue collapsed.

This “platform dependency problem” is increasingly common. Businesses and content providers have become overly reliant on platforms, such as Facebook, Instagram, WeChat, TikTok, and YouTube, as gateways to their audiences. With fewer visitors discovering sites through open browsing, websites find themselves at the mercy of platform algorithms and policies. This trend harks back to the early days of the internet when AOL’s walled-garden approach reigned supreme; users were funneled through a closed environment rather than navigating the open web. It now often means users won’t even leave the platforms to experience the diversity of the open web.

The rise of internet filtering and regional “internets”

Countries around the world are exerting increasing control over their domestic web landscapes. Nations like China and Russia maintain tightly controlled “national internets” that restrict content accessible to their citizens. Countries like Turkey and India have also taken steps toward internet filtering, limiting content to align with governmental priorities or ideological positions.

This segmentation of the web into national silos directly undermines the open web’s mission of universal accessibility. The trend threatens to balkanize the internet, creating isolated digital ecosystems where content is available only to specific audiences, subject to government oversight (“ OR .

Daniel Saroff is group vice president of consulting and research at IDC, where he is a senior practitioner in the end-user consulting practice. This practice provides support to boards, business leaders, and technology executives in their efforts to architect, benchmark, and optimize their organization’s information technology. IDC’s end-user consulting practice utilizes IDC’s extensive international IT data library, robust research base, and tailored consulting solutions to deliver unique business value through IT acceleration, performance management, cost optimization, and contextualized benchmarking capabilities.