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NFL playoff odds after Week 1 (2026): why my Monte Carlo model barely trusts a 31-10 win

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Week 1 of the 2026 NFL season is done. Sixteen teams are 1-0, sixteen are 0-1, and every sports show is already telling you who is "for real." I build a Monte Carlo simulator that estimates NFL playoff odds for all 32 teams, so I wanted to know how much one week should move those numbers. The model's answer is "not much," and the reasons are more...

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